the citizen-viewer

Obama and the Democrats did not meet the high end of expectations (see my predictions for example), but they still did remarkably well for a party in a transfer-of-power election.

2008 ranks as the biggest win of its kind since 1932, so it’s pretty big. If not a landslide, then some other catastrophic metaphor. “Of its kind” means measuring 2008 against other elections in which the party out of power defeated either a sitting incumbent (1932, 1980, 1992) or the non-incumbent nominee of the incumbent party (1952, 1960, 1968, 1976, 2000, 2008).

If we measure it against re-elections of incumbent presidents, then it’s nowhere near the “landslides” 1936, 1956, 1964, 1972, 1984, or 1996.

But considered in the context of transfers of power, 2008 ranks as one of the two the biggest transfer-of-power wins since 1932.

What Obama won was the arguably the biggest combination of victory percentage (52%), margin of popular vote victory (7%), Electoral College vote margin (192), House gains (+21, with 2 more possible) and Senate gains (+6, with 3 undecided).

He won a higher percentage of the popular vote than Reagan in 1980 (51%), and more congressional gains than Carter in 1976 (House + 1, Senate +1), and Eisenhower in 1952 (House +8, Senate +2).

I have to say arguably, because in 1980 Reagan picked up more electoral votes and gained more seats in the House and Senate. However, Reagan won a smaller share of the popular vote (50.75%) than Obama (52.55%), and after his congressional victories, Reagan’s party remained a minority in the House.

In practical terms, the Democrats’ House margin of 82+ and Senate margin of 12+ (at minimum; this assumes that the three outstanding races go to the GOP, and so does Lieberman) is the biggest advantage for a party controlling the White House since 1992, when Clinton’s Democrats were 82 up in the House and 14 up in the Senate.

This time the Democrats in Congress are much less burdened by the Dixiecrat remnants, several of whom switched parties in 1994.

So, incumbent re-election landslide? No. Transfer of power election landslide? Yes. It’s all a long way of saying that there is no joy in Mudville if you’re a Republican. They got a historic kiester crunching.

Election / win% / pop. vote / EV tot / EV margin / House gains / Senate gains

2008 Obama 7% 52% 365 192 21 6

2000 Bush -1% 49% 271 5 -1 -5

1992 Clinton 6% 43% 370 202 -9 1

1980 Reagan 10% 51% 489 440 35 7

1976 Carter 9% 55% 297 57 1 1

1968 Nixon 0.70% 43% 301 110 4 7

1960 Kennedy 0.17% 50% 303 84 -20 1

1952 Eisenhower 11% 55% 442 353 8 2

1932 Roosevelt 17% 57% 472 413 97 12